Why aren’t conservative voters who are turning away from the ruling party turning to the opposition? In this article, Azra Bulut discusses the stance of the opposition media and how the “Trojan horse journalism” approach has weakened the opposition.
Erdoğan, who has governed Turkey for a quarter-century, owes his hold on power to his ability to devise strategies adapted to ever-changing circumstances. His ability to shape a country’s destiny for 25 years stands as a powerful example of Machiavellian political ethics adapted to the present day.
Although it has experienced a steady decline in its vote share over the past 10 years, it has managed to stay afloat by dividing the opposition and turning part of it into a “puppet opposition.” The most challenging test for the ruling party arose from the erosion of a portion of its own voter base. While the ruling party, in its early years, crafted a political agenda that appealed even to voters from opposing political camps, in recent years it has struggled to retain the support of even its own conservative base. However, this shift in the sociological foundation of politics is not being credited to the opposition.
Although the ruling party has lost its former energy and persuasive power, it is managing to prevent voters who have drifted away from its base from falling into the hands of opposition political actors. It owes this success to two factors: First, journalists who appear to be in opposition but are under its control (Trojan horse journalists); second, the failure of opposition politicians to understand the new voter base entering its own base.
One of the most recent and typical examples that led us to this conclusion can be seen in the stance taken by the opposition media in response to the operations targeting the Süleymanlılar Community, which is the most organized and has the largest following in the country. It is clear that the community’s main “crime” was supporting the opposition in the last election rather than the ruling party. While this obvious fact is plain to see, the way the so-called opposition media has reported on these events has been manipulative and stigmatizing to an extent that even the ruling party’s media would be hard-pressed to match; it has twisted the facts.
The simplest and most direct answer to the question, “Why does the ruling party remain in power despite its entire negative track record?” is the support—whether deliberate or foolish—that the opposition media provides to the ruling party. While the government beats up conservatives who try to step outside their own neighborhood—at the cost of trampling all legal norms—the so-called opposition media practically dances in celebration, can be explained by ideological blindness and bigotry—or by “Trojan horse” journalism.
These journalists, who constantly talk about empathy, suddenly switch gears and have an emotional outburst whenever the topic turns to conservative voters. They instantly forget all the criticism they’ve directed at the Erdoğan regime and, without any scrutiny, endorse the propaganda footage the government disseminates regarding operations aimed at political intimidation. They support this smear campaign with the demonizing and othering words and concepts from their own lexicon.
It remains to be seen how such a mindset will strengthen the opposition… Who knows, perhaps they have no such concerns. Perhaps, as Tolstoy observed a century and a half ago, there is a clear moral issue at hand. For the famous writer, with his observation that “It is not reason that is lacking in the ignorant. They are shrewd; what is lacking is morality,” has laid bare a truth whose validity has been proven throughout the ages and continues to be proven.
Yet the math is very simple: 60% of the country consists of conservatives, while 40% consists of political groups—mostly secular and representing various ideologies. It appears that the ruling party, which once consolidated this 60% behind its own front alongside the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has not managed to secure more than 40% of the total vote within its own bloc in recent years. According to this calculation, 20 percent of the vote should go to the opposition; however, that is not the result of the equation. This is because those who have left the ruling party face a serious credibility issue within the opposition camp. The most significant indicator of this credibility problem is this: the sociological base turning toward the opposition is constantly belittled by the media acting as the opposition’s mouthpiece and is abandoned at the first opportunity.
On one side are masses who are fed up with the ruling regime and feel helpless. Faced with the regime’s punitive measures and threats of all kinds, these masses turn to the opposition camp. On the other hand, they are met with a mocking attitude by the opposition camp’s “Trojan horse” journalists and arrogant intellectuals, and are abandoned at the first sign of trouble. This condescending and duplicitous attitude of the opposition media, in turn, causes new voter groups to back away.
As a result, the ruling party is trying to deter voters who are beginning to drift away by declaring, “You’re either with me or against me.” Meanwhile, spokespeople for the opposition media are playing into this crude but intimidating use of power. Since it is clear that voters moving away from the ruling party have been prevented from switching to the opposition, it is possible to speak of a new socio-political group—comprising “undecideds,” those who say “I won’t vote,” or those who say they will cast a “protest vote”—that accounts for 35 percent of the electorate. This clearly demonstrates how the ruling party has managed to stay in power despite all the setbacks, and why the opposition has failed to become a realistic and credible alternative.
Image Source: https://www.kulturportali.gov.tr/portal/troyaati
